The last week or so, you can practically hear the ground thudding as airline after airline has collapsed in the U.S. Airbus, the latest casualty, raised over a hundred million dollars in funding before falling spectacularly to earth this week under the dual weights of a lagging economy and heavy fuel costs. Money, jobs, dreams, all gone bust.
So what can we learn from this?
We all build our lives (and our businesses) on a platform of assumptions. These assumptions may be so basic to our thinking that we are not even aware they are there. The kind of assumptions that never ask an airline to think: "What happens if the economy sinks at the same time fuel prices double?"
Airbus's business model was very attractive - in a time when the economy was thriving and when fuel prices appeared stable. When the conditions changed, the stresses became too large to bear. Should we fear the same outcomes for our own lives and work?
Why fear when you can plan instead? There is a tool out there that can give us remarkable insight into how we can adapt in the face of overwhelming change. It is called Scenario Planning.
In it's simplest form, Scenario Planning is about identifying the main drivers that influence your business. (For an airline, the economy and fuel prices would be right up there.) By taking those drivers and forecasting a set of diverse future scenarios, an organization or team can identify a group of potential futures. Then for each of them ask: Is our business model still sustainable? How could we thrive in this environment?
Wikipedia actually has a good overview of the Scenario Planning process. If you're interested in how it works, you can check it out here.
The economy is a bit turbulent now. This has happened before and it will undoubtedly happen again. What we can do with this is observe the world and learn all that we can. Conditions change. Our world is complex and at times unpredictable. This does not mean we are powerless, unless we choose not to plan for the unexpected.
Do you have any information to share on this topic? Leave a comment so your peers can benefit from your input.
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